Long-Term Water Quality Trends in the EvergladesConclusions (ct.)

• Interpretation Aided by Empirical Tracking Model which Considers the Following Variance Components:

  • Long-Term Trend
  • Hydrologic Variation
  • Random Variation

• 80% of Variance in 1978-1990 ENP Shark River Slough Inflow P Explained by Increasing Trend & Negative Correlation with Basin Flow

• Application of Model to 1992-1996 Data Complicated by High Flows, Requiring Extrapolation beyond Calibration Range

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